Food Insecurity during COVID-19.

For a decade, Feeding America's Map the Meal Gap (MMG) has provided sub-state-level estimates of food insecurity for both the full population and for children. Along with being extensively used by food banks, it is widely used by state and local governments to help plan responses to food insecurity in their communities. In this paper, we describe the methods underpinning MMG, detail the approach Feeding America has used to make projections about the geography of food insecurity in 2020, and how food insecurity rates may have changed due to COVID-19 since 2018. We project an increase of 17 million Americans who are food insecure in 2020 but this aggregate increase masks substantial geographic variation found in MMG.

Ad hoc government payments impact on non-real estate farm debt

Purpose The authors examined the impact of the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) and Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) payments to United States agricultural producers on non-real estate agricultural loans. Design/methodology/approach The authors used quarterly, state-level commercial bank data from 2016-2020 to estimate dynamic panel models. Findings The authors found MFP and CFAP payments not associated with the percentage of non-real estate agricultural loans with payments over 90 days late. However, these payments associated with the percentage of non-real estate agricultural loans with payments between 30 and 89 days late. The available data utilized cannot consider when producers received the actual payment and what they specifically did with those funds. Originality/value The contribution of this study is for US policymakers and agricultural lenders. The findings could be helpful in designing and implementing future ad hoc payment programs and provide an understanding of potential shortcomings of the current safety net for agricultural producers in the Farm Bill. Additionally, findings can assist agricultural lenders in predicting the impact of ad hoc payments on their distressed loan portfolios.

IMPROVING FOOD POLICIES FOR A CLIMATE INSECURE WORLD: EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA

Climate change and weather shocks have multi-faceted impacts on food systems with important implications for economic policy. Combining a longitudinal household survey with high-resolution climate data, we demonstrate that both climate and weather shocks increase food insecurity;cash assistance and participation in Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme have reduced food insecurity;but food assistance has been ineffective. Importantly, households with savings, and those that stored their harvest to sell at higher prices rather than for home use, suffered less from food insecurity, yet both strategies are harder for the poorest and most food insecure households to adopt. Our paper provides micro-founded evidence needed to design policies that both improve agricultural yields in the context of a changing climate and target households’ abilities to cope with shocks that put upwards pressure on food prices.

Impact of COVID-19 on Medium-Term Export Prospects for Soybeans, Corn, Beef, Pork, and Poultry.

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered life in innumerable ways in many countries across the globe. In this article I review what the virus did to patterns of US and Brazilian exports of major commodities during the first surge of the virus during April and May 2020, and also speculate on what may happen during the beginning of North American winter in late 2020. The analysis highlights how grains versus meats have been vulnerable to trade disruptions due to the coronavirus pandemic. US exports of beef and pork were particularly impacted by a wave of processing facility shutdowns in the wake of COVID-19 outbreaks among workers. Poultry exports saw declines from their highs but remain strong, even though poultry-processing facilities have also faced issues with outbreaks and shutdowns. Trends in 2020 grain and oilseed exports have not been affected by the pandemic.

Emergency Food Provision for Children and Families during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Examples from Five U.S. Cities.

As lockdown and school closure policies were implemented in response to the coronavirus, the federal government provided funding and relaxed its rules to support emergency food provision, but not guidance on best practices for effectiveness. Accordingly, cities developed a diverse patchwork of emergency feeding programs. This article uses qualitative data to provide insight into emergency food provision developed in five cities to serve children and families. Based on our qualitative analysis, we find that the effectiveness of local approaches appears to depend on: (i) cross-sector collaboration, (ii) supply chains, and (iii) addressing gaps in service to increased risk populations.

Coronavirus Impacts on Midwestern Row-Crop Agriculture.

Impacts from the coronavirus pandemic have depressed market returns to corn and soybean farmers in the Midwest, extending pressures that have existed since 2013 and worsened by trade disputes with China. Without large ad hoc federal aid, income on Midwestern grain farms would have been quite low and the ongoing cash flow crunch much worse. Farmland prices have not adjusted downward, in part due to continuing ad hoc federal aid, but also because interest rates have been historically very low. The financial (solvency) position of Midwestern grain farms is surprisingly strong because of the strength in land values. However, the financial condition of Midwestern row-crop agriculture could deteriorate markedly if recent and large infusions of ad hoc federal aid dissipates or if interest rates rise sharply.

Impact of COVID-19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China.

In this paper, we employ a combination of time regression discontinuity design method (T-RD) and the difference-in-difference method (DID) to identify and quantify the causal effects of the strict lockdown policy on vegetable prices using multiple-year daily price data from 151 wholesale markets of Chinese cabbage. We find that the lockdown policy caused a large and immediate surge in price and price dispersion of Chinese cabbage, though they fluctuated smoothly for the same period in normal years. The DID results further show that the price surge peaked in the fourth week of lockdown but gradually came down to the level of a normal year by week 11. However, the price rose again (though to a much smaller extent) in response to the resurgence of COVID-19 in a few provinces in early-mid April but quickly returned to the normal level in week 15 when the lockdown measures were largely removed. We also find that the supply chain disruption is the driving factor for the price hike. Policy implications are drawn.